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Human-Centric Wealth Management™
Current Trends & News is a weekly financial recap curated by SPC Financial®'s team of wealth management and tax-integrated advisors. We monitor and explore the intricacies of the financial world and share insights into market developments.
Global economic growth has not always been robust. Until the 1700s, economic growth averaged about 0.1 percent per year and was closely tied to population growth.
"Bigger harvests allowed more mouths to be fed; more farmers allowed for bigger harvests.”
The Economist. Eventually, better-nourished people had ideas about how to improve their lives, and economic growth edged higher.
Innovation, investment, and productivity have helped to accelerate global economic growth. Economists measure economic growth (and contraction) using gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a region over a period of time.
During the 20th century, the total amount of goods and services produced exceeded the total amount of goods and services produced in recorded human history.
“Between the years 1900 and 2000 world GDP at constant prices has increased about 19-fold, corresponding to an average annual rate of growth of 3 percent.”
International Monetary Fund's research department
Some countries' economies grew faster than others. In 2024, the United States had the largest economy in the world (GDP of about $30 trillion). China had the second largest economy (GDP of about $19 trillion, in U.S. dollars), and Germany had the third largest (GDP of about $4.7 trillion, in U.S. dollars).
AI is expected to increase the pace of economic growth, although there is debate about the magnitude of the change.
“Artificial intelligence research is filled with dramatic forecasts. AI will affect almost 40 [percent] of jobs around the world, according to the International Monetary Fund. It will increase global GDP by $7 trillion — or 7 [percent] — over 10 years, predicts Goldman Sachs. Or it will grow between $17.1 and $25.6 trillion annually, if you prefer to go with McKinsey's estimate. And these projections are relatively conservative compared with others...MIT Institute Professor Daron Acemoglu has a more conservative estimate of how AI will affect the U.S. economy over the next 10 years...the GDP boost would likely be closer to 1 [percent] over that period, Acemoglu suggests.”
International Monetary Fund's MIT Management, Dylan Walsh
“My assessment is that there are indeed much bigger gains to be had from generative AI, which is a promising technology, but these gains will remain elusive unless there is a fundamental reorientation of the industry...in order to focus on reliable information that can increase the marginal productivity of different kinds of workers, rather than prioritizing the development of general human-like conversational tools."
Daron Acemoglu, Economist
Last week, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at a new high every day, reported Connor Smith of Barron's. (On June 30, 33 percent of the index was invested in technology stocks.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also finished higher. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed over the week.
The incredible bull market continues, with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high each day last week. November 2021 was the last time we saw that feat. For the year, the S&P 500 is now up 8.6%, a long, long way from down 15% back in early April.
With the S&P 500 up nearly 9% so far in 2025, we are already at about your average year, as the average since 1950 has been up 9.5%. The interesting catch—there is no such thing as average when it comes to investing.
Incredibly, the S&P 500 has gained 8–10% for the year only four times the past 75 years. Digging into the historical data, stocks have gained more than 20% 22 times and been lower only 21 times, suggesting the odds of a 20%+ gain are higher than of having a down year.
To see new highs from technology, financials, and industrials is a great sign. Then include that various global stock markets are hitting new highs, and this is a very broad-based global bull market. Sure, some sectors and groups are lagging (like healthcare and consumer discretionary), but there are laggards every year.
The S&P 500 equal weight index just made new highs, another healthy sign. Many claim that only large cap stocks are going higher, but this index is not cap weighted (all stocks count the same), so it shows this rally is anything but top heavy.
Lastly, the S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day moving average for more than 60 consecutive days, another rare and bullish development. Stocks have never been lower three months later after this has occurred. Over the past 50 years we've seen gains of 20%-26% a year later.
There may be more tariffs to come, especially a few large tariffs in August on many countries (50% for Brazil), plus sectoral tariffs on things like copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and electronics. Even those may be postponed (in fact, pharma tariffs may be pushed out to 2027). Yet the latest trade deal with Japan is quite telling with respect to the direction of the administration's trade policies, more so than the deals with the UK, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
The shape of the deal tells us that the administration wants to close deals sooner rather than later and be done with all the trade chaos. (We received further confirmation of this over the weekend with a trade deal announced with the European Union and a 90-day extension of the tariff pause with China.) The best way to get there is to lower the tariff rate from Liberation Day rates (with a floor of about 15%), while securing commitments for investment in the US, and/or cutting some export deals. In fact, the US appears to be pursuing this same strategy with China too. The tone has softened a lot in those negotiations, and in addition to the extension of the August 12 deadline, the US is now allowing Nvidia to sell its less advanced H20 chips in China once again.
Deals with Japan, China, Canada and Mexico, are in the books or progressing, and that pretty much covers 80-85% of US trade.
It's taken a while for the US and Japan to reach a deal, with the Japanese side slow-walking things. Ultimately, it took eight rounds of talks to get a deal, with President Trump coming in to close.
Things were barreling toward the August 1 deadline, and Japan was facing a big increase in tariff rates. The US was probably feeling some pressure too to avoid yet another deadline pushed further out. The final details are yet to be hashed out, but here's a broad outline.
What the US got was broader market access for American rice and cars. American cars will be built to US safety standards, rather than being subject to additional requirements. Japanese tariffs on US vehicles will be zero (though it was zero already).
Japan also apparently committed to $550 billion in investments in the US, although there's not much clarity about what exactly it's going to be invested in and what the timeline is. We'll have to wait for final terms. The White House says that the funds will be spent at Trump's discretion, which makes things even less clear since there's going to be a question of how exactly it's going to be structured (presumably, Japan would want a say too). On the other hand, the Japanese side says they'll guarantee loans on investments up to $550 billion in areas relevant to their national security, including semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, aviation, energy, and AI.
What the Japanese got was basically tariff “relief” with a 15% tariff rate on exports to the US. This is especially big for autos. Japanese vehicles currently face a 2.5% tariff when exporting passenger cars to the US, and a 25% tariff on light trucks (like SUVs) and commercial vans. That was slated to go up by another 25% with the administration's special sectoral tariffs on autos. Instead, Japanese vehicles will face a 15% import duty, a very good outcome for Japanese auto manufacturers given what they were facing. Meanwhile, US automakers still face a slew of tariffs on various inputs, including steel, aluminum, copper, and non-compliant USMCA goods (which amount to over 50% of imported goods from Canada and Mexico).
The Japanese ultimately ended up with more tariffs than before all this started, but a 15% tariff rate is far from the worst case, especially relative to the announced Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs. All things considered, their automakers have come out in good shape—there's a reason why Toyota's stock surged 16% and Honda almost +12% on news of the deal.
The Nikkei 225 soared 5.5% after the deal was announced, powered by the automakers, and underlining what a relief this deal was for investors in Japanese stocks. In fact, the Nikkei is once again knocking on the door of all-time highs, hopefully putting any major threats to its 36-year recovery (since the 1989 highs) firmly in the rear-view mirror.
The war may be over but there are consequences, and a bit of a hangover. After all, we do have more tariffs than at the start of the year, including 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper (upcoming).
Below is a recap of some of the original rationale(s) for imposing tariffs and use these to assess what the US got out of all this.
One concrete thing the US is getting is tariff revenue, to the tune of $100–$200 billion per year additional revenue from new import duties. That is not nothing, as it adds up to about $1-$2 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years. That offsets some of the cost of the $3.4 trillion tax bill that Trump signed into law on July 4 (the cost will balloon to $4.7 trillion if temporary provisions are made permanent). The original claim was that tariffs would bring in about $700 billion of revenue per year, more than offsetting the cost of the tax cuts over the next decade.
At the same time, more tariff revenue means higher prices for goods. After all, someone is paying the tariffs, and it looks like the brunt of it is falling on consumers, rather than foreign exporters or even US businesses. However, the price increases are likely to be a one-time event, which is not a bad thing, although it could show up in inflation data over several months because of how things are measured and how and when companies choose to push costs to consumers. Also, the price increases are not expected to be significant given the level of tariffs we appear to be settling at, or at least nothing like what we saw in 2022 amid the supply chain crisis. It also means there's not much incentive for Americans to substitute purchases away from imported goods to American goods. So, imports are unlikely to fall significantly (unless we go into a recession and demand falls, reducing imports).
In short, we don't expect much reshoring because of tariffs. All in all, the tariff rate is not high enough to make a big impact one way or the other, whether to offset the cost of tax cuts or incentivize reshoring of manufacturing, but it's high enough that consumers will feel it in prices. At least temporarily.
There have been announcements of new investments intended to be made by foreigners here in the US, including Japan and the EU but also from the Middle East. The timeline is very unclear, and the devil will be in the details. But here's the thing—if more capital is flowing into the US, that means the current account deficit (which is mostly the trade deficit) is increasing. There are no two ways around it, as it's a national accounting identity. The current account deficit is the opposite of the capital account surplus. If there's more fixed direct investment (FDI) flowing into the US, that means the trade deficit is likely getting larger, not smaller.
With respect to leveling the playing field, tariffs and non-tariff barriers were never really a problem for US exporters. In fact, US companies that want to sell products abroad make those products abroad (like iPhones, drugs, and even cars). Crucially, the profits accrue to the benefit of shareholders in the US (though not taxes on these profits, thanks to profit shifting).
As an example, American auto makers are not going to make a car in the US and export it to Japan, especially with metal tariffs of 50%. Non-tariff barriers like safety standards are not especially cumbersome to get around if an automaker wanted to. European automakers do it all the time when exporting their vehicles to Japan. Also, most Japanese prefer smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles (gas prices are much higher in Japan), rather than light vehicle trucks (SUVs, minivans) that US automakers mostly manufacture here in the US. Add to that, the US-made vehicles are left hand drive, whereas Japanese cars have their steering on the right. Finally, these large vehicles would hardly fit on Japanese streets—it's not very appealing to do seven-point turns to make a U-turn, let alone finding parking for these relative behemoths.
As for emerging economies, they're simply not wealthy enough to afford goods made in the US. The Vietnamese and Indonesians aren't going to turn around and buy US-made goods, or if they do buy American goods, it's going to be those that are manufactured abroad (and as I noted above, profits on these accrue to US shareholders).
One of the main impacts from the trade chaos of the last few months is that we have higher rates for longer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself admitted that they would already be cutting rates if not for tariffs. Given we're starting to see some tariff impact in official inflation data, we may not see another rate cut until November or December.
There's no question that rates are high, and policy is tight. We're seeing the adverse impact across the board, with the economy expected to grow just 1-2% in 2025, a far cry from the 2.5-3% expected at the start of the year:
This doesn't mean the economy is entering a recession, but there's clearly a slowdown in place. Cyclical areas like housing and manufacturing are weak amid the weight of high interest rates and tariff hangover. On the other hand, one thing going for the economy right now is the AI build-out, which we're seeing in high-tech and equipment manufacturing. That's going to be a positive contributor to GDP (let alone profits for the big tech companies involved in these buildouts).
The average effective tariff rate is currently around 13%, about 10%-points higher than it was at the start of the year. Even though that's high, that was pretty much the “best case” scenario for most analysts before Liberation Day. Goldman estimates that the average US effective tariff rate will rise to 19%, but that's not expected until 2027. There's a long way to go.
Given that tariff rates appear to be settling near the best-case scenario, it shouldn't be a surprise that markets are hitting new highs, especially given the dominant AI theme right now. Earnings expectations are also rising as companies navigate around tariffs.
Concerns about US debt loads, inflation, political turmoil and more have led to a flurry of questions about investing their retirement account in gold or silver.
Just like land investments, the ownership of gold in an IRA is technically legal. But the taxpayer may not touch it, physically keep it or hold it in their own safe because it must be held by an approved trustee and physically maintained in an IRS approved physical depository. The physical storage requirements of gold means that the custodian will charge significant fees, and the IRA must maintain a substantial amount of cash to pay those fees for many years. Annual costs usually run between $250-$300.
The Tax Court held that a taxpayer who self-directed her individual retirement account (IRA) to invest in American Eagle coins through a limited liability company owned by the IRA and managed by the taxpayer, and who then took physical custody of the coins, received a taxable distribution equal to the cost of the coins. The court also found that a statement on the website the taxpayer used to set up her IRA, which indicated that taxpayers could purchase coins with IRA funds and obtain physical possession of the coins without tax consequences, did not constitute a reasonable cause defense to the substantial understatement of tax penalty. (McNulty v. Comm'r, 157 T.C. No. 10 (2021)).
Then there are these questions:
If you have any questions about investing in gold or silver, please contact us.
Some people enjoy travel planning. They read books about the destination, review online publications for restaurant, hotel, and event information, and ask friends (or locals) for tips and suggestions. But travel planning is not everyone's jam. If you love vacations and dread the planning, AI travel-planning apps may prove useful, as long as you understand the limitations.
"Travel has become one of the most popular use cases for AI... While AI agents that can manage the entire process of planning and booking your vacation are still some way off, the current generation of AI tools are still handy at helping you with various tasks.”
Rhiannon Williams, MIT Technology Review
Here are two things to keep in mind when using AI to plan a trip:
Develop detailed prompts. “Prompts” are the questions you ask AI. Detailed and descriptive prompts tend to produce better answers. Don't worry, prompts don't have to be perfect. You can start with the basics like, “What are easy day trips from Rome by train?” Once you have the answer, you can modify your wording and add context, helping AI deliver more detailed and specific information. The more you practice, the better you'll get. AI can:
Fact-check the answers. Unfortunately, it's not a good idea to accept the information AI provides as fact. “AI models are prone to making stuff up, which means you should always double-check their suggestions yourself,” reported Williams.
For example, Bloomberg reporter Catherine Thorbecke asked AI to recommend “the best beef noodles in my area [Thailand] — with the very specific request that the shop had to accept credit cards.” The restaurant had fantastic beef noodles, but it only accepted cash.
Regardless, Thorbecke found AI to be a valuable travel companion. She wrote, “I found the tool to be incredibly helpful while navigating a foreign city, using it not just to find spots to eat but also to translate menus and signs, as well as communicate with locals via voice mode. It felt like the ultimate Asia travel hack."
Catherine Thorbeck, Bloomberg
It's important to remember that AI may be susceptible to scam travel websites, just like humans are. If an AI travel app directs you to a site for booking, make sure to verify that the site is real. One way to check is by reviewing the web address. Fake websites have URLs that are very similar to those of real websites. The tipoff is usually that the fake address is misspelled, includes strange characters, or has an incorrect domain extension (e.g., .net instead of .com).
On July 4th, President Trump signed into law the “Big Beautiful Bill.” This legislation enacts sweeping and permanent changes to numerous tax provisions, extending, enhancing, or terminating various credits, deductions, and rules. It is important to note that if nothing was done, tax breaks that millions of Americans have benefitted from would have expired. Key highlights include:
Permanent Extensions and Enhancements:
New Tax Benefits and Programs:
Limitations and Changes to Deductions:
Termination of Energy and Clean Vehicle Credits:
Other Provisions:
If you have any questions about the bill and how it may impact your financial plan, please contact us.
The FBI has issued a warning to 150 million Apple and Android users to be aware of malicious text messages being sent to their phones. The text message scam warns individuals of significant consequences if outstanding bills or fines are not paid immediately. The messages currently include unpaid tolls and newer DMV traffic offenses, but will eventually mimic texts from bank and credit card companies, per the FBI. The FBI reported that there was an 800% increase in fraudulent DMV-themed texts in the first week of June alone.
Not only are the cybercriminals impersonating a DMV, but they are also impersonating law enforcement officials, demanding payment for fines or missed court appearances to avoid arrest.
"Scammers always prey on people's fears. They are always opportunistic. They try to ratchet up that sense of urgency so that you do not think about what you are doing and then send the money.”
Spokesperson from the FBI
If you receive a suspicious text message, the FBI and other agencies suggest that you do not click any link the message contains and to delete the message immediately.
Scams usually start with a phone call, email, text, or another form of communication. The person typically claims to be from an agency or organization you know – or one that sounds like it might benefit you, such as the National Sweepstakes Bureau or a lottery.
The person may know your name and address. They may give you their official title or an identification number. No matter how official they seem, you can be confident it is a scam if the person contacting you:
If this happens, remember that the Social Security Administration, the Internal Revenue Service, Medicare, and your bank do not call, email, or text to ask for money or personal information. They do not demand that you pay immediately, and they do not accept payment by gift card, prepaid debit card, cryptocurrency, or another untraceable form of money transfer.
When you suspect a scam:
When you receive a digital message, no matter how official it seems, do not click on any links. Do not give or confirm any personal information, including your name, birth date, phone number, address, email address, place of birth, driver's license, passport, or Social Security numbers, bank or other account numbers, and PIN numbers.
Being skeptical can keep you safe. Remove yourself from the situation. Do not share information. If you feel anxious and need to confirm that it was a scam, contact the organization using a method provided on their official website.
On March 25, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14247 — Modernizing Payments to and From America's Bank Account. The order requires all payments made from or to the IRS to be conducted via electronic funds transfer (EFT).
The purpose of the Executive Order is to combat unnecessary costs, delays, risk of fraud, lost payments, theft and inefficiencies. For Fiscal year 2024 issuing paper checks was estimated to cost taxpayers more than $657 million.
The phaseout of paper check disbursements and receipts is scheduled for Sept. 30, 2025. Payments such as fees, fines, loans and taxes must be made electronically where permissible under existing law.
A few exceptions will remain at the discretion of the Treasury secretary:
Heads of federal agencies must submit implementation plans within 90 days of the order. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has 180 days to submit an implementation report detailing progress under the order.
Taxpayers should prepare for the shift to electronic payments ahead of the Oct. 15 filing deadline.
July 29, 1909: General Motors Buys Cadillac
On July 29, 1909, the newly formed General Motors Corporation (GM) acquired the country's leading luxury automaker, the Cadillac Automobile Company, for $4.5 million.
Cadillac was founded out of the ruins of automotive pioneer Henry Ford's second failed company (his third effort, the Ford Motor Company, finally succeeded). When the shareholders of the defunct Henry Ford Company called in Detroit machinist Henry Leland to assess the company's assets for their planned sale, Leland convinced them to stay in business. Leland introduced the first Cadillac—priced at $850—at the New York Auto Show the following year.
In its first year of production, Cadillac put out nearly 2,500 cars, a huge number at the time. Leland, who was reportedly motivated by an intense competition with Henry Ford, assumed full leadership of Cadillac in 1904, and with his son Wilfred by his side he firmly established the brand's reputation for quality. Among the excellent luxury cars being produced in America at the time-including Packard, Lozier, McFarland and Pierce-Arrow-Cadillac led the field, making the top 10 in overall U.S. auto sales every year from 1904 to 1915.
Over the years, Cadillac maintained its reputation for luxury and innovation. In 1954, for example, it was the first automaker to provide power steering and automatic windshield washers as standard equipment on all its vehicles. Though the brand was knocked out of its top-of-the-market position in the 1980s by the German luxury automaker Mercedes-Benz, it sought to reestablish itself during the following decades and remains a leader in the luxury car market.
“The wish to travel seems to me characteristically human: the desire to move, to satisfy your curiosity or ease your fears, to change the circumstances of your life, to be a stranger, to make a friend, to experience an exotic landscape, to risk the unknown.”
l,Paul Theroux, Author
"The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.”
l,Franklin D. Roosevelt, 32nd President of the United States
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Sources: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/24/what-if-ai-made-the-worlds-economic-growth-explode https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781557759368/ch005.xml https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPCNA646NWDB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPDEA646NWDB https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/july-29/general-motors-buys-cadillac https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/a-new-look-economics-ai https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Acemoglu_Macroeconomics-of-AI_May-2024.pdf https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-072525?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?pe=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/08/1094733/how-to-use-ai-to-plan-your-next-vacation/ https://www.huit.harvard.edu/news/ai-prompts# https://www.carsonwealth.com/insights/blog/market-commentary-the-end-of-the-trade-war-and-more-new-highs/ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-24/will-ai-help-or-wreck-your-summer-vacation https://us.norton.com/blog/online-scams/online-travel-booking-scams
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