Broker Check

February 11, 2019

| February 20, 2019
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At its first policy meeting of 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve changed direction. After four rate increases in 2018, Chair Jerome Powell announced interest rates were on hold. Last week, banks in the United Kingdom, Australia, and India followed suit by either reducing rates or cautioning rate reductions were likely, reported Sam Fleming and Jamie Smyth of Financial Times.


The dovish tone of central banks owes much to slowing global growth. January’s International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook lowered global growth estimates for 2019 and 2020. Changing expectations were fueled both by factors that slowed momentum in the second half of 2018 and by issues that pose a potential risk to continued economic growth. These included:

  • The negative effects of higher tariffs
  • New auto emission standards in Germany
  • A slowdown in domestic demand in Italy
  • Economic contraction in Turkey
  • High levels of public and private debt
  • Escalating trade tensions
  • A no-deal British exit from the European Union
  • A severe slowdown in China


These issues have had limited effect on the U.S. economy; however, global risks are affecting the performance of some U.S. companies. Financial Times explained:


“The U.S. domestic economy has continued to put in a robust performance, with the number of new jobs in January coming in well ahead of Wall Street expectations and wage growth running comfortably above inflation. But corporate giants in the S&P 500 index, which generate over a third of their earnings overseas, are sounding the alarm about faltering overseas demand in markets including China, where the government has been battling against a slowdown. Smaller U.S. firms are feeling the global chill as well.”


Randall Forsyth at Barron’s reported major U.S. benchmarks finished last week higher, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit a 13-month low. Outside the United States, some global stock markets moved lower.


THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS


U.S. stocks finished barely positive last week. The S&P 500 inched 0.1 percent higher on a relatively light week for news. The government shutdown has delayed a number of key statistics about the strength of the U.S. economy and given investors less data than expected to evaluate it. Earnings continued to outperform expectations. Last week’s earnings raised growth expectations to above 13 percent.


Trade negotiations between the United States and China remain a key focus. U.S. negotiators head to Beijing for the next round of negotiations this week. A possible meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping prior to the negotiation deadline was ruled out by the United States. Markets dropped on Thursday in response to concerns trade negotiations weren’t going as well as anticipated.


Managing and meeting expectations is a key driver of investor reactions to news. Last week, the U.S.-China trade negotiations provided an example of how heightened expectations can put pressure on markets.


The negotiations are making progress, and U.S. representatives will travel to Beijing for the next round of talks. However, the United States backed away from a possible summit between President Trump and President Xi prior to the early March deadline set by the two countries. Reports indicated the negotiations haven’t reached the point of creating a written document of resolved and unresolved issues that is normal prior to the two heads meeting and ironing out the final agreement.


Investors had expected greater progress and continue to expect a deal, so the slight step backward moved markets in the latter part of the week because it failed to meet expectations.


Corporate earnings are another area where expectations matter. Corporations manage market expectations, so results typically beat them by a modest amount. This quarter, 71 percent of S&P 500 companies have beat expectations, which is about average.


The accompanying chart shows how slowing global growth and concerns about trade have pushed down expectations for global companies next year. S&P 500 companies deriving more than 50 percent of their revenue outside the United States are only expected to have earnings grow 1.9 percent on revenue growth of 3.1 percent. These dampened expectations may create an opportunity for global firms to outperform. The expectations for domestically focused companies are far higher and may be difficult to achieve.


Source: https://insight.factset.com/are-sp-500-companies-with-more-global-exposure-reporting-lower-earnings-growth-in-q4Dated

February 11, 2019


KEY POINTS FOR THE WEEK

  • U.S. corporate earnings continued to beat expectations by normal rates.
  • U.S.-China trade negotiations made progress but not as much as expected.
  • Optimism is highest for U.S.-focused companies.


WHAT ARE WE READING?

Below are some articles we paid particularly close attention to this week. We encourage our readers to follow the links.


Best and Worst States to Retire

46 indicators were measured to track the best and worse states to retire to. The factors center on affordability, health and quality of life. Florida not surprisingly is ranked #1 overall. The lowest ranked state is Kentucky. If you are considering moving during or prior to retirement, check out the link the see the full details.


Woman’s obituary gets the last laugh

Sybil Hicks wrote her own obituary before passing away on February 2. Her obituary has become quite popular on social media as her sense of humor truly showed. The most popular line includes a joke about her being cremated, “I finally have the smoking hot body I have always wanted.”


IRS VOLUNTARY ID THEFT PIN PROGRAM EXPANDING


The IRS is expanding to seven additional states its voluntary program for taxpayers who wish to obtain identity protection personal identification numbers (IP PINs) and are not currently victims of tax return identity theft. The pilot program originally involved Washington, D.C., Florida, and Georgia. IP PINs will now be available in seven more states: California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, and Rhode Island. Those states report the highest number of identity thefts to the Federal Trade Commission.


An IP PIN is a six-digit number assigned to eligible taxpayers to prevent their Social Security number (SSN) from being used on fraudulent federal income tax returns. It allows the IRS to verify taxpayers’ identities when they file their return. This prevents a criminal from filing a tax return using the IP PIN holder’s SSN.


The voluntary program permits taxpayers who last year filed a tax return from one of those states to obtain an IP PIN by using the IRS’s Get an IP PIN tool to authenticate their identities. To obtain an IP PIN, taxpayers must validate their identities through a two-factor authentication process called Secure Access. The pilot program will not have a manual option for taxpayers who fail to authenticate their identities.


Any taxpayer in the listed states may obtain an IP PIN. The IRS will continue to issue by mail IP PINs to taxpayers who are confirmed victims of tax-related identity theft. However, these taxpayers may also use the Get an IP PIN tool to obtain an IP PIN immediately.


Once the IRS determines its systems can handle the expansion of the program to the additional states, it hopes to be able to offer it to taxpayers in every state.


WEEKLY FOCUS


“Taking in the good, whenever and wherever we find it, gives us new eyes for seeing and living.” 

                           ~ Krista Tippett, American journalist

"The only way to discover the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible."
                         

                        ~ Arthur C. Clarke, Science Fiction Writer


Links & Disclaimers

RJFS and SPC do not offer or provide legal or tax advice. Tax services and analysis are provided by the related firm, S&M through a separate engagement letter with clients. Portions of this newsletter were prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with RJFS, SPC or S&M.  The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  This information is not intended as a solicitation of an offer to buy, hold or sell any security referred to herein.  There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue in the future.  Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of RJFS.  Any expression of opinion is as of this date and is subject to change without notice. 


Opinions expressed are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.  Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Keep in mind that there is no assurance that any strategy, including diversification and asset allocation, will ultimately be successful or profitable nor protect against a loss. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.  Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal.  Please note direct investment in any index is not possible.


The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.  Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.


The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. As of June 2007, the MSCI ACWI consisted of 48 country indices comprising 23 developed and 25 emerging market country indices. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices rise.


The Barclays Capital Aggregate Index measures changes in the fixed-rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch Investors Service, in that order. The Aggregate Index is comprised of the Government/Corporate, the Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Asset-Backed Securities indices. 

 
Links are being provided for information purposes only.  RJFS, SPC and S&M are not affiliated with and do not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors, and they are not responsible for the content of any website, or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

https://www.ft.com/content/24508f0e-2b91-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/01/11/weo-update-january-2019

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-global-slowdown-could-soon-hit-the-u-s-51549676496

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-asia-stocks-slip-renewed-anxiety-over-005019341--finance.html

http://fosslien.com/heart/

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/225253.Krista_Tippett

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-and-worst-states-to-retire/18592/

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/woman-gets-last-laugh-obituary-finally-smoking-hot-body-always-wanted-cremated-162205618.html?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

https://www.irs.gov/identity-theft-fraud-scams/get-an-identity-protection-pin

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/secure-access-how-to-register-for-certain-online-self-help-tools

RJ Approval # 2419035

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